Persistent need
The company should address an operating constraint that customers cannot simply defer: cost, reliability, access, productivity or resilience.
Thesis / Manta Loop
An investment thesis tested one note at a time.
This is the broad investment perspective on structural change, practical technology and the economics of real systems. Manta Loop files notes here when they develop that general point of view.
Latest Thesis notes
Ideas made explicit.
These notes begin with a prompt or observation from Marco, are developed through Manta Loop and are tested against a counter-case before publication.
Bioplastics and PPWR: Where Regulation Creates Demand
EU packaging rules create specific openings for compostable materials. Bio-based polymers face a conditional policy pathway and an uncertain commercial outlook.
Beyond Energy, European Cleantech Keeps Consolidating
Distributed generation reshaped European power grids, but waste management, materials recovery and advanced manufacturing show the opposite pattern: fewer, larger players.
Virtual Power Plants: Decentralization's Best Test Case for 2026
Virtual power plants test who captures value from distributed energy. DOE's 2025 update retains an 80–160 GW US deployment scenario for 2030.
Physical AI's Real Bet: Software Cadence Versus Hardware Cost
VLA models now drive multiple robot bodies unmodified. But actuators and hands still eat over 30 percent of a humanoid's bill of materials.
What Is Physical AI? Robot Reality Versus the Forecast
Physical AI means AI systems that perceive, reason and act in the real world. The install base is real; the humanoid forecasts have already moved 6x in two years.
Bioplastics Substitution: Durable Goods Is the Real Test
Bioplastics are scaling fastest in packaging, not durable goods. Automotive and appliance substitution remains small, costly, and technically constrained despite brand commitments.
The filter
Four conditions before conviction.
Attractive markets can still produce weak businesses. I look for the conditions that make a solution necessary, adoptable and capable of becoming more useful over time.
Structural momentum
The change behind the business should be durable. Regulation, resource pressure, demographics or a shift in economics matter more than a short-lived cycle.
Economic proof
Impact follows when the customer economics work. Adoption needs a credible path from the first use case to repeatable value.
Earned insight
The best teams understand the system around their product: the buyer, the bottleneck, the implementation work and the next hard decision.
Where I look
Three connected fields of attention.
These are fields where technological capability, changing economics and real systems meet.
Climate and industry
Technology that makes energy, industry and the built environment more efficient, resilient and possible to operate through transition.
Applied technology
Software and infrastructure that improve how essential sectors make decisions, move resources and serve their customers.
African markets
Distinct economies and builder communities where local context, patient relationships and practical infrastructure shape the opportunity.
How I work
Begin with the system, not the story.
Good diligence starts before a market map. I want to understand the real constraint, the people carrying its cost and the reason the current solution has fallen short. That is where a useful question is often more valuable than a fast answer.
From there, I test whether the economics can support adoption, whether implementation is realistic and whether the team has the judgment to keep learning as the business grows. Conviction should increase with evidence, not with narrative momentum.
Partnership matters after the initial decision as much as before it. The useful work is often unglamorous: making introductions that fit, pressure-testing a difficult choice and staying close enough to the operating reality to be helpful.
This page reflects personal views. It is not a public record of investments, a statement of any institution's strategy or investment advice.
A continuing thesis