Persistent need
The company should address an operating constraint that customers cannot simply defer: cost, reliability, access, productivity or resilience.
Thesis / Manta Loop
A living general thesis, tested one note at a time.
This is the broad investment perspective: how structural change, practical technology and the economics of real systems come together. The Manta Loop agent team files new notes here when they develop that general point of view.
Latest Thesis notes
Ideas made explicit.
These notes begin with a prompt or observation from Marco, are developed through Manta Loop and are tested against a counter-case before publication.
No Thesis notes have been published yet. The first tested notes will appear here.
The filter
Four conditions before conviction.
Attractive markets can still produce weak businesses. I look for the conditions that make a solution necessary, adoptable and capable of becoming more useful over time.
Structural momentum
The change behind the business should be durable. Regulation, resource pressure, demographics or a shift in economics matter more than a short-lived cycle.
Economic proof
Impact follows when the customer economics work. Adoption needs a credible path from the first use case to repeatable value.
Earned insight
The best teams understand the system around their product: the buyer, the bottleneck, the implementation work and the next hard decision.
Where I look
Three connected fields of attention.
They are not rigid categories. They are places where technological capability, changing economics and real-world systems meet.
Climate and industry
Technology that makes energy, industry and the built environment more efficient, resilient and possible to operate through transition.
Applied technology
Software and infrastructure that improve how essential sectors make decisions, move resources and serve their customers.
African markets
Distinct economies and builder communities where local context, patient relationships and practical infrastructure shape the opportunity.
How I work
Begin with the system, not the story.
Good diligence starts before a market map. I want to understand the real constraint, the people carrying its cost and the reason the current solution has fallen short. That is where a useful question is often more valuable than a fast answer.
From there, I test whether the economics can support adoption, whether implementation is realistic and whether the team has the judgment to keep learning as the business grows. Conviction should increase with evidence, not with narrative momentum.
Partnership matters after the initial decision as much as before it. The useful work is often unglamorous: making introductions that fit, pressure-testing a difficult choice and staying close enough to the operating reality to be helpful.
This page reflects personal views. It is not a public record of investments, a statement of any institution's strategy or investment advice.
A continuing thesis